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June 16, 2005

Another authoritative word on the boundary issue

From The Times' letters page

Constituency boundaries
From Professor R. J. Johnston, FBA

Sir, The seats that Labour won in the recent general election on average had fewer electors than those won by the Tories not because the Boundary Commission defines smaller seats in urban areas (report, June 13) but because of the long delays between redistributions.

The constituencies this year were defined using 1991 data, since when city seats have tended to lose population, thus helping Labour. More frequent and quicker redistributions could significantly reduce that (but Parliament has resisted that in the past). The constituencies now being defined in England use electoral data from 2000: when first used they will probably be nine years old, and they are likely to last until at least 2016.

Although this “creeping malapportionment” benefits Labour and was one of the reasons why its 3 percentage points lead in the votes translated into a 25-point lead over the Conservatives in seats, it was not the main reason. Differences in turnout were more important. Labour tends to win in seats with lower turnouts than those won by the Tories and the Boundary Commissions cannot be blamed for that.

RON JOHNSTON
(Co-author, The Boundary Commissions, Manchester University Press, 1979)

Posted by pauldavies on June 16, 2005

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