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June 09, 2005
Why British Politics Conspires Against The Conservatives
For a lot of people, it’s hard to ever feel sorry for the Conservatives; they are, after all, a menacing, mendacious pack of political hyenas, feeding off the carcasses of the working classes, laughing hysterically all the way back to their homes in Knightsbridge. Or so says the Big Book of Easy Political Clichés.
So effective has the post-Thatcher Tory-baiting been, and such was the Iron Lady’s influence in destroying her own party that treating the Conservatives as a disunited group of political punchlines and nincompoops has become somewhat ingrained on the nation’s political psyche. This is sadly as old-fashioned and distorting as the first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system that rounds on the boys in blue like a Liverpudlian.
Any way you care to measure it, the electoral system favours Labour. It didn’t always, but now it does, and it’s never been this bad before. If it were just the fundamental power that FPTP places in the hands of the incumbents, no one could really complain – it’s that way for a reason (however spurious) and is equally unfair in favour of whichever party is in charge. However, this is not the case; the oddities of FPTP work in favour of Labour and regional favourites in Northern Ireland and against just about everybody else – not least the Conservatives.
Although it is often said that apathy helps the Conservatives, the massive drop in turnout seen in 2001, and sustained this year, merely made Labour’s vote distribution even more efficient, further highlighting how the odds are unashamedly stacked in their favour.
FPTP discriminates against parties whose support is spread across the country and also those parties that rack up massive majorities in certain core areas. The best scenario is, therefore, to have ‘lumpy’ support – moderately high enough to win a seat in some areas, and low where you don’t stand a chance. This is exactly how Labour’s voters are distributed.
This is in part due to luck, but also due to the fact that Conservative voters are more inclined to go the polls, even when they know their candidate will be returned with a thumping majority, thus piling up towers of useless votes in traditional Tory strongholds.
When turnout fell from 71.5% in 1997 to 59.4% in 2001, a large proportion of the fall came from safe Labour seats, which ultimately made no difference to the result. Conversely, the Labour vote in the marginals it had won from the Conservatives in 1997 held up remarkably well.
The idea of efficient vote distribution can be illustrated by comparing Northamptonshire and Liverpool between 1992 and 2001. Labour lost about 40,000 votes in Liverpool between 1992 and 2001, yet they still safely held all the seats in the region. In Northamptonshire, by contrast, Labour's vote rose by just 13,000, which was enough to rob the Conservatives of five of the six seats up for grabs.
The Conservatives lose out on efficiency of vote distribution, but not nearly as badly as the Lib Dems, who despite receiving 22% of the vote, nabbed only 9.6% of the seats. UKIP can also feel aggrieved: they polled more than twice the number of votes of the DUP, but have no members of parliament, compared to the DUP’s nine.
Perhaps the most publicised feature of the system working against the Tories is the biased state of the constituency boundaries. There is a bias, and the average Labour seat currently has about 5,500 fewer electors in it than the average Conservative one, thus meaning it took fewer votes to elect a Labour MP. However, in 1979, the gap was even worse, but the system as a whole was fairer, suggesting that other factors are more instrumental in skewing the system towards Labour.
If the 2005 general election had been fought under the now updated boundaries, it would only have meant an extra dozen or so seats going to the Conservatives. The next general election will be fought under updated boundaries, but by the time this comes round, the data will already be the best part of a decade out of date.
Either way, it’s simply not that important, but it offers a nice way for Conservative MPs to complain about the iniquity of the system, without having to address the voting system, or admit to their substantial image-related failings.
The image problem that has beset the Tories since goodness-knows-when is well-documented, but its effects, which have grown in stature since 1992, are rarely elucidated upon. With the increase in tactical voting over the last decade, however, the problem is as big an electoral issue for the Conservative vote-share as boundaries and shifting demographics.
The cult of criticism that built up around the Thatcher and Major governments following the poll tax and Black Wednesday has done as much to bury the Tories as a serious political force as Tony Blair’s charm has. Preying on a public scared by the hobgoblins of street rioting and 15% interest rates, the Lib Dems conspired with Labour to keep the Conservatives out of power.
YouGov’s election analyst Peter Kellner estimated that anti-Tory tactical voting deprived the Tories of 43 seats in 2001. And while the blue vote has remained as barren as the successive leaders’ heads, tactical voting has blossomed.
In recent years, the Conservatives have faced further problems from the more minor parties, but this time the problems have arisen on the right. If UKIP and Veritas had supported the Tories on May 5th, the Tories would’ve won another 27 seats.
Tactical voting is carried out because in many areas, voting for who you really support is either pointless, or dangerous, or both; we all remember Tony’s scare stories about how going to bed with Charlie meant you woke up with Michael. On a crude level, therefore, changing to a preferential system, such as STV, should be amenable to the Conservatives, as it encourages positive voting, rather than these negative anti-Tory shenanigans.
However, if there is one thing that you can count on in the discussion about voting systems, it is that crudity gets you nowhere.
A system that allows you to rank candidates, and thus represents the complicated will of the nation better than FPTP could easily work against the Tories more than the current system, so one can understand their reluctance to embrace change. Better the devil you know and all that.
The trouble comes because just as FPTP distorts the votes cast into seats won, preferential voting distorts people’s actual feelings. Like most decisions which allow emotion too great a sway, anti-Tory sentiment is prone to getting a little out of hand. Despite the arguable point that New Labour is as close, if not closer to the Conservatives than the Lib Dems, a large proportion of Labour voters would rank Labour and the Lib Dems ‘1’ and ‘2’, before placing the Tories at the bottom, below both the Monster Raving Loony candidate and the local farmer campaigning for the right to marry his goat.
This is taken further by people like Jonathan Freedland, who have argued that PR is the best way to keep the Tories out of power indefinitely.
But just as militant members of the Left are prejudiced by emotion, staunch right-wing supporters of FPTP are shackled by inertia and atavism.
There is another way. In a top-up system, such as the one proposed by the 1998 Jenkins Commission, the Tories would likely get most of the ‘extra’ MPs, elected to make sure that parliament more accurately reflects the popular vote shares.
It might not be perfect, and from a Tory perspective it might be no better than FPTP, but it demands to be looked at, at the very least.
Proportional representation has already saved the Tory party in Scotland and in Wales, it could yet save them in Westminster too.
The Tories clearly aren’t the incompetent ignoramuses they’re made out to be, or at least not all of them are, and certainly no more so than any other party. They’re not even (Widdecombe aside) characters from a horror story that parents tell to frighten their children.
They are, however, a little scared of the public. And of change. So a change that gives the public more say makes many Conservatives rather hesitant. Hesitancy, however, is no way to win power, unless you merely wait for the opposition to mess things up. But hoping that Gordon will take the Labour party far enough back to the left to re-inherit the voters that jumped aboard bandwagon Tony back in 1997 is probably wishful thinking. The Chancellor will have waited for a decade for his chance to be PM, when he presumably takes over in a few years’ time; he’s not going to risk blowing it straight away by alienating the middle-classes.
The Tories, it would appear, haven’t yet spent long enough in opposition to bother looking seriously at the ways in which the system they so ardently support is so prejudiced against them. It obviously didn’t matter when they were in power, then the natural choice for the next Tory leader turned up on the other side, while a succession of odd little bald men led the party from one embarrassing defeat to another. They may yet spend another generation in the political wilderness, but looking at all the possible solutions, including electoral reform, would surely be a good idea.
Posted by pauldavies on June 09, 2005
Comments
You mention minor right wing parties costing the Tories 27 seats, but to be fair you must also mention the minor left wing parties costing Labour seats.
Glancing through the 47 Labour losses, there were quite a few where the Green and Socialist party vote made the difference between winning or losing for Labour.
The Greens stood in 200 seats and must have made the difference in a number of seats that Labour could have won.
On top of this most of the 33 Tory gains were down to Labour voters switching to Lib Dems. The Lib Dems are currently attracting a lot more potential Labour voters than potential Conservative voters costing Labour lots of seats.
Labour's advantage in the electoral system is down to boundaries being drawn on the size of the electorate and local geographical boundaries not the number of actual voters.
The turnout in urban areas where Labour is strongest is much lower so less voters are needed to win a seat. This low urban turnout could come back to haunt Labour if the Tories ever sneak back into power.
In the recent Tory manifesto the Tories proposed reducing the number of MPs to 500. This would increase the number of high turnout Tory voting rural areas added to urban constituencies.
Rather than court urban voters, the Tories would prefer to move the boundaries. So much for democracy! This gerrymandering has being going on since FPTP started. It is getting worse and is the main reason FPTP must be scrapped!
I think FPTP is very fair to the Tories, they got 32% of the vote and 31% of the seats in Westminster, even under current boundaries. With boundary changes the Tories will do even better.
As long as electoral reform doesn't promise the Tories significantly more seats in parliament they will oppose it. Maybe a fourth election defeat will start to change their mind!
Posted by: Neil at June 10, 2005 03:38 AM
UPDATE: more discussion on this at the Sharpener
Posted by: Paul Davies at June 10, 2005 10:30 AM
I think you should send this to Cameron, and Willetts. They are about the only ones who would take this analysis seriously.
Posted by: Andrew Kitching at June 10, 2005 10:35 PM
Also worth noting that the Greens cost the Lib Dems a number of seats - Guildford and Edinburgh South, for instance - while Oxford East might well have gone gold had it not been for an independent standing as 'Honest Blair'. Guildford (whose MP had been the Lib Dems' environment spokesperson, and just about as green a politician as you get in Parliament) in particular went to the Tories thanks to the Green intervention.
Posted by: Douglas at June 12, 2005 12:43 AM
the trouble with using the Greens as an alternative to the UKIP 27 seats numbers is that we don't know if Green would go LD or Lab, and UKIP got well over twice as many votes as the Greens...
Posted by: Paul Davies at June 13, 2005 10:06 AM
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