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July 19, 2005

First-Past-the-Post Rocks, M'kay?

If one thing characterises the debate over electoral reform, it's that no one has yet constructed a cogent argument in favour of First-Past-the-Post. Not that anyone has to, of course: the power of incumbency and self-interested politicians makes such a thing unnecessary.

There are plenty of people prepared to rubbish proportional representation, all too often focusing on crazy forms of closed lists or the like that no sane person is proposing for Westminster. There is nothing, it seems, that a politician likes more than to take the piss, seemingly free from the trammels of the Great British sense of fair play.

The following exchange, for example, took place in the House on 22nd June this year:

Mr. David Heath (Somerton and Frome) (LD): I do not want the hon. Gentleman to move too far away from his friend, the hon. Member for Bethnal Green and Bow (Mr. Galloway). When he spoke to that hon. Gentleman, did he discuss that fact that, uniquely in modern history, he was elected with the support of only 18.4 per cent. of the electorate in his constituency? Does the hon. Gentleman believe that that is a genuine reflection of the political views of the people of Bethnal Green and Bow?
Mr. Oliver Heald (North-East Hertfordshire) (Con): That is the sort of point that one might wish to address in a serious way had it come from any other part of the House, but it is rich coming from the Liberal Democrats, who believe in proportional representation, which can lead to extremist parties getting elected with only 5 per cent. of the vote.

And although Hansard doesn't note it, I can only assume that a great guffaw reverberated around the chamber, as it has done every time someone has dared touch upon the topic of the benefits of proportional representation since the days of Oliver Cromwell.

On the same day, when leader of the Liberal Democrats, Charles Kennedy had the gall to ask the Prime Minister "Does he think that the composition of the House of Commons accurately reflects what the British public voted for on 5 May?", he was met with this response: "I can only say to the Lib Dems that what with all that is going on in the world today, this seems to be a pretty odd set of questions", which Simon Hoggart suggested "was the equivalent of asking him if he would like some fizzy pop and a bag of sweeties."

It's not just in the Commons that senior politicians believe the question of a more representative parliament can be laughed off and brushed aside like a bothersome fly or a small ginger-headed child. Jack Straw, for example, took the time to write articles in both the Guardian and the Independent, taking care to trot out every tired and erroneous myth he could fit into 1000 words or so. It's as if he was trying to prove that the issue was so unworthy of proper consideration he could simply spit on the page and it would still go away.

But I've said all this before, and I have more important things to get on with, so leave Jack we must, I'm sure he's busy either saving the world or being held accountable by the people of Blackburn as I write.

The point is, (after that circuitous little circumnavigation of the argument) that someone needs to write a decent defence of FPTP. I, and the ever-estimable Jarndyce of Fair Vote Watch, were rather hoping that the equally-estimable Blimpish would do just that. However, it's been a while, and there wasn't an awful lot else going on, so I've had a go myself...

So no fallacious nonsense – no talk of extremists (FPTP can nurture them); no loss of constituency link (PR can increase both accountability and representation); no 'it's too hard to understand' (if you can't work out how to count to three, you shouldn't be allowed to vote); no 'the Lib Dems will hold the country to ransom' (one or two policy deals maybe, but that would only be reflecting public opinion); no Harmanesque crowing 'Labour won, so shut up and stop whining' (did we really want a government that can whip ID cards through so easily?); no talk of other countries, especially Israel (political culture is as important as the particular system used, so it's all far too conjectural); and definitely, absolutely, no party agendas.

With the Ashes approaching, it seems at least vaguely appropriate to open with a cricketing analogy. A year or two ago, England's Captain Boldness, Michael Vaughan was injured and had to leave the field, thus handing the decision-making powers to Marcus Trescothick. Trescothick adopted a strange kind of 'consensus captaincy', trying to juggle the ideas of the whole team in how best to set the field, when to make bowling changes etc. It didn't work; it was like watching a group of people who intend to go to the cinema faffing about because no one wants to be the first person to leave to go somewhere else, who then consequently all miss the start of the film. 'Consensus captaincy' didn't inspire any confidence and everybody was noticeably lifted when Vaughan returned from treatment.

Politics needs good leadership. It's an imperfect business, and therefore there's a thousand ways to go about running it. But in practical terms, one way is better than a thousand ways. People squabble enough over the particulars of PR systems; multiply that stubborn bitterness a hundred-fold and you get somewhere near the size of the problem.

The best way of solving this is to force people to work together, not in a watered-down manner, but in a sensible, effectiveness driven manner. British political culture is broadly bipolar. FPTP entrenches this bipolarity and forces fringe groups to work with the moderates, rather than forcing the moderates to work with the fringes, which is what proportional representation encourages. It's a subtle difference, but an important one.

This isn't quite as simple as the old line that under FPTP coalitions are formed pre-election and under PR they are formed after, thus taking power from the people and giving it to the politicians, and their shading back-alley dealings. This takes it too far. It would be fairer to say that FPTP affords the minor parties the power they deserve – if UKIP, for example, come up with a popular policy, the Conservatives would benefit from incorporating it into their manifesto, but without any further strings attached. A very similar thing would likely happen under PR, only it would be the UKIP man tabling the policy, rather than the Tory. In the end, not a great deal of difference, and one of PR's most cherished statements about giving more representation to everyone's views is effectively made null and void. Also, by bringing in the policies, rather than the parties, you are acting more directly to the will of the people. Fringe parties under FPTP aren't useless, they're just more like important think-tanks with a link to the people than parties actually vying to form part of the government.

This 'checking' mechanism of, primarily, the Lib Dems, has clearly not been working so well of late. This, however, is due to a shifting, or even eroding of ideological boundaries in the post-Socialism Blairite era. PR might make the situation appear clearer, if, for example, it demanded a re-appraisal of where each party, or each party faction, stood, but it wouldn't automatically offer a fuller voter choice, or more fully represent the 'will of the nation'.

Under such a bipolarity, the issue of the Lib Dems warrants some discussion. For many voters, the Lib Dems act as the simplest 'check' to the consensus – they are the 'sod you' vote, and whereas there might be real tangible support for some of their ideas, or at least the desire to see some of them taken further, fewer people actually want them to be in charge than the Orange hierarchy would have you believe.

In this way, they show how well people have learnt to play the game, to get, by whatever means, more or less what they want in parliament. Admittedly, and in wake of the stupidity of the religious hatred bill and those silly ID card things, the voters didn't play the game that well, but they got close, and there's little reason to suggest PR would have made up the shortfall.

Don't underestimate the shrewdness of the major players: if the Lib Dems show significant support exists for a particular issue, that a potential vote-goldmine exists, they will do what they can to plunder it. In the last election, the only issue they were really rewarded for in terms of votes was the war. One wonders, given the passionate nature of the situation, whether this represented the limit of their potential support, support garnered from old Labour voters who felt angry at Blair for going to war, and unsure of where else to turn.

The post-Blair shift in Britain's political infrastructure has done more than alienate the old left; it has shown the benefits of policy continuity, which FPTP does a lot to aid. In the real world, i.e. not the one inhabited by outsider idealists, political decisions are tough, and often the right decision is not a popular one. If it needs an exaggeratedly strong government to take these decisions, and stick around long enough to make sure they become part of the system, then so be it. It's not often politicians get to look at the long-term, therefore these chances should be cherished.

Politics is all too often choked by short-termism, this happens to all governments, in all systems – elections are such a bitch. If, by either entrenching a government, or forcing them to squabble over the same ground, you get at least a modicum of long-term thinking as a result, you really can't complain too vociferously. Take Britain's labour market, for example. What is now the envy of Europe was built on unpopular policies that recognised that such far-reaching economic change takes time, and would inevitably bring about unwelcome short-term changes, such as temporarily high unemployment. The government may have changed in the middle, but not before the upside of the unpopular policies had started to become noticeable.

A possible alternative under a post-election coalition is that we end up with an EU-constitution-like situation, which although it doesn't offend anyone, doesn't please anyone either, as major policies are watered down to virtual ineffectiveness. Furthermore, if all decisions are reached consensually, which party do you blame when things inevitably go wrong? It's no easier to kick a bad government out under FPTP, but it is easier to see which party is responsible for the mess.

Abandon all hope ye who enter here

"In politics there is no honour." – Benjamin Disraeli

Power is a very intoxicating drug. It's addictive and inexorably tied to politics. Ultimately, winning is everything, and anyone who disagrees is in denial or in the wrong game. There is no cure, and the most hardcore victims are more dangerous than any dope fiend. None of this is necessarily bad, but it's importance demands respect.

However, this is an importance that is overlooked by supporters of electoral reform, who should all really have something better to do than chase after holy grails.

For the voting system to change, you need to win over the parties, especially the one in power. Give up on the Tories. They have nothing to gain from proportional representation. The whole system may be unbelievably 'more equal' to Labour than it is to them, but in 2005 they gained more or less the number of seats that their share of the vote merited, and why sacrifice the chance to have disproportionate power in the future for nothing?

Labour will only push a change if they can be convinced that they would otherwise be shut out for half a century. Tony has already shown, with his comments as transcribed above and his appointment of Tubby Prescott to chair the Cabinet Sub-committee on Electoral Policy, that he's not going to do anything about it.

Even the Lib Dems, as Paddy Ashdown said, could be ripped apart by PR, but the potential prize obviously outweighs these concerns. Besides, who cares? For the foreseeable future, we're going to be ruled by either a Labour or a Tory government; scenarios like the current one just encourage them to try a bit harder to engage the populace – ultimately they do need some votes. But politicians aren't all Borises. A scarily large group of them are complete social lepers, who if they had all come from the same village would raise suspicions of a nuclear accident. It's politics: it's difficult, under whatever system.

That our political world is fraught with problems is a no-brainer. That it always will be is also something that we simply have to accept. Sure we can all dream of Utopia, so long as we realise that these are just dreams. PR does have its advantages, and a not too-far-flung potential to solve some of the problems we now face. But it is naïve to suggest it will cure them all or not create new problems.

Even an idiot like Geoff Hoon can see the need to re-engage an increasingly disillusioned electorate. This can be achieved in a number of genuinely realisable ways, like discussing important policies in a grown-up manner on prime-time television, rather than leaving the Sun, the Mirror and the Mail to chew them up, distort them and spit them back in a cursory and deformed state. If you want grown-up politics, you need a grown-up electorate, an educated electorate. There's no reason to suggest that more fairly representing an ill-informed electorate is a great leap forward in this direction.

I will of course return in a day or two to tell myself that I'm wrong...

Posted by pauldavies on July 19, 2005

Comments

It's good to see you now agree with the reasons I gave 2 months ago on why the Tories have no interest in PR. Although another election defeat might change this! Concentrate our efforts on Labour, where almost a third of their MPs already support change.

You are also right to mention how educating the electorate is just as important as changing the electoral system. While we have such a distorting media, any electoral system change is a limited improvement.

Ive racked my brains to think of good things to say about FPTP and Im struggling to think of anything. I don't think it even leads to decisive government!

Look at all the long term big decisions that have been avoided on our infrastructure, the economy, transport, the environment! All issues where Germany has a much better record. Look at how effective coalition rule has been in Scotland and Wales and even London.

Under FPTP, parties have to always fudge the issues to win the marginal seat floating voter rather than saying what they think and building support gradually.

FPTP is not even the best non-PR system! AV is much better because it at least takes account of voter preferences.

The only thing I can say in FPTP's defence is that, because it has been in place for so long, some of the electorate have learned how to get the most out of a bad system by voting tactically etc.

Any change will be painful in the short term as the electorate and parties get used to a new system. It will take one or two elections to bed in. This I think is the major obstacle and why AV might be a useful stepping stone towards PR. Although an AMS system is my preferred solution overall.

Posted by: Neil Harding at July 19, 2005 05:11 PM

now agree? Suggesting I was once at odds with it? Besides, this is just one side of the argument. There is a case, albeit a small one re: Tories and PR, one which I might have puffed up a bit earlier to make a point. Nothing is ever clear-cut in this game. (unless of course you are an avid ideologue, in which case EVERYTHING is congenitally clear-cut :))

"infrastructure, the economy, transport, the environment! All issues where Germany has a much better record."

in what timescale? Our economy has kicked German ass for a good few years now, and given aging popn and a poor welfare structure, Gy is only going one way at the moment. Perhaps that ginger woman will sort things out? There is a reason that Gm and French chiefs are looking at GB's economy to see how to make their ones better...

Obviously, their trains are light years ahead of ours...

"Look at how effective coalition rule has been in Scotland and Wales and even London."

Not that this should be taken for my view, as I don't know enough to have a proper view, but it is surely far too early too tell. Who's to say what has been achieved is not just down to devolution, rather than the voting system?

"PR is not even the best non-PR system! AV is much better"

Again, that's a bit of a leap. It's much better for Labour. But say the 2005 election had been fought under AV, Labour's majority would be up near three figures. The ID card nonsense has shown they have plenty of power as it is, and I certainly don't think a Labour govt with a majority of near 100 would have been anywhere near reflecting what the people wanted. I think the majority of electoral reformers, or at least the neutral ones, would shy away from saying that AV is better than FPTP.

As ever, this is only stuff to think about...

Part two should close it up a bit, at least for me, but in anything such as this, it can never be closed completely, there's too many other factors at play, and the question of PR in practice with british political culture hasn't even been touched upon, and can't be properly for at least 25 years... :)

Posted by: Paul Davies at July 19, 2005 07:18 PM

Paul: haven't forgotten about this, and I will come back and comment ASAP - a bit busy at the mo.

Posted by: Blimpish at July 25, 2005 12:46 PM

no problem Blimpy, I've just started writing my own defence against, erm, me. I've literally just started and have a proper lunch to go to, but I should finish it this afternoon, after which you can comment on them both :)

Posted by: Paul Davies at July 25, 2005 01:25 PM

Hmmm. This needs thought. Not that I think your 'pros' of FPTP aren't real, but that they are miniscule compared with the pros of some (reasonable - not 'Israelitalian") form of PR. Will post on this when I get back from my hols. Good effort...

Posted by: Jarndyce at July 26, 2005 05:15 PM

ta jarndyce, it was mildly tricky putting it together, and I took a lot less time over the comeback (although I was beer-fuelled for that, hence the hasty appearance of it)

no one else in the office wanted to help me out with this piece either. It's always going to be tough defending something that Prescott clings to like it were the last jam doughnut on the planet.

Posted by: Paul Davies at July 26, 2005 06:45 PM

The essential point of Paul Davies'defence of FPTP seems to be that you get a strong leader. Actually in the UK you dont - you get a party with the right to pick who they like as leader.

If you believe that the leadership is important then you need a Presidential system such as the US of A with a "strong" leader elected by 50% (at best of the votes. -I dont think so....

Posted by: Stephen Walkley at September 22, 2005 04:28 PM

Stephen - was it? I didn't think so... but then I wrote it (and struggled to at that) a while ago...

I thought the main point was the forcing coalitions pre-election rather than post... but either way, all points were either insignificant or countered in the piece a couple of days later...

Posted by: Paul Davies at September 22, 2005 09:58 PM

Labour and the Conversatives do have something to gain from PR: avoiding being suddenly destroyed. If PR existed last century, the Liberals may not have been reduced to third party status; or at least, not so quickly. Perhaps the Liberal Democrat argument is more to do with past injustices :).

Do note that while FPP may focus campaigns onto marginal seats, this is only a slight shift in behaviour. Policies will still be targeted at the marginal *voters* - considering your core support will always vote for you and your core opposition will never, best focus on those who might.

Posted by: Nichlemn at December 9, 2005 09:26 AM

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