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June 26, 2006
What do we want? A headline! When do we want it? Now!
Congratulations to the The Times this morning. They've kindly informed everyone what we've been saying for over a year.
The boundary changes make it harder for Labour to secure a majority, but make little difference to the Tories' chances of getting in, or anything else for that matter.
Obviously, as they ran it on the front page, their opening spin on it isn't quite so mundane. There has to be a winner, and a loser, after all. But delve in and we get the important stats.
After the changes, a swing of only just over 1 per cent would destroy the majority, while under unchanged boundaries it would take a 1.8 per cent swing.
However, the Tories will still need a swing of 9 or 10 per cent (down from 11 per cent) to win an outright majority
If the changes had been in place last year, Labour would have had 347 seats instead of 355, the Tories 209 instead of 198 and the Lib Dems 64, up two, according to researchers Lewis Baston and Simon Henig.
There is still going to be a big electoral bias against the Conservatives
Posted by pauldavies on June 26, 2006
Comments
Cameron was on the today programme this morning saying how it was important that each vote had equal worth.
I screamed at the radio that my vote would be worth more a couple of miles down the road (which would take me from a safe seat to a marginal).
Posted by: Murk at June 26, 2006 03:44 PM
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