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May 24, 2007
making Labour’s case for the south
Some great material here to start up conversations with Labour supporters in southern England. John Denham gave a Fabian Society lecture yesterday on 'Southern Discomfort Revisited'. Full transcript is here . In it he argued that Labour cannot comfortably govern the UK as a whole without a significant southern presence. Here are some of the key points John made, including (bottom paragraph) why electoral reform is essential.
In 1997 we received 29% of the vote in South East. In 2005 we received just 24% of the popular vote. Across this region and across the East and the South West we had lost the support of a quarter of the people who voted for us in 1997. Many of my South East colleagues won again but only by their fingertips. The most recent local elections left us running just two councils. Nearly half the councils in the South East have no Labour councillor. It's a huge challenge to renew the coalition of voters that supported us with such high hopes in 1997. Why does it matter?
Labour's working majority depends on a number of southern seats. But we need to be more ambitious than simply hanging on to some key marginal Parliamentary seats in the South of England.
Can Labour can govern the UK for an extended period of time if we have limited electoral support, and very limited elected representation, in local government or Westminster? The Tories failure to win in Wales or Scotland triggered massive constitutional change. Labour weakness in the south would have different consequences but similar issues of legitimacy would eventually arise.
As the Tories found it becomes more and more difficult to hold Westminster seats when your local government base is eroded, and when the prevailing political culture begins to run against the governing party.
'super-marginal' strategies focus over-heavily on a small group of active swing voters in marginal seats. But this pessimistic approach obscures issues that must be addressed to build a broader and more reliable base of support.
There are thousands upon thousands of voters in every county and every constituency who will have no one to stand up for them if Labour does not. If we look beneath the apparent prosperity of the South we can see plenty of issues that only Labour will ever tackle: of inequity, of exclusion and of unfairness.
There is plenty in the values and aspirations of southern voters that can lend support to progressive politics. We can't claim these voters by right. But we can win their support and so ... strengthen their support for a progressive approach to politics.
One important ingredient to Labour's long term southern strategy is electoral reform. It is essential. A more representative voting system would, at a stroke, give Labour better representation and greater legitimacy in the South. It would, almost certainly, increase Labour's overall vote somewhat by bringing into the open our support which is currently suppressed in unwinnable seats. A reformed electoral system would also force Labour to consider more explicitly the interests of voters outside the areas we currently hope to hold. But electoral reform is not a magic bullet. It does not guarantee the political debate about our overall strategy and approach.
Posted by malcolmclark on May 24, 2007
Comments
A number of audience members spoke in favour of electoral reform (and not just the usual suspects). Several commented on the "secret Labour voters" and the need to reward their support and represent them - hard to do under FPTP.
The most incisive comments were made by Tony Travers (LSE academic and local government expert). He talked about the presentation he has produced entitled "Conservatives in the urban north" - lost councillors, leading to lost actvist base, making it near impossible to win those areas back. The salient point was that our democracy and political culture has changed: the decline in stump politics and firm political allegiances making it much more difficult than in the past to regain support in areas where that has drained away. Travers said there was puzzlement in Conservative circles about why Cameron is doing well in Harrow and Redbridge, but not in the likes of Oldham or Rochdale. His thesis goes part of the way to explaining that trend; as well as giving a timely warning to Labour that 'once an area has gone, it really has gone'. Perhaps the only way back is to push a significant amount of resources to revive the local party and local activism - something that Labour seems unwilling to do [under the current voting system] with so much emphasis placed on winning / keeping the super-marginals.
Posted by: Malcolm Clark at May 24, 2007 05:51 PM
As always John Denham offers some very intelligent comments. AV or STV would keep Parties of permanent opposition (e.g. Conservatives in South Yorkshire; Labour in Buckinghamshire) ticking over, instead of withering and dying.
Labour needs more politicians like him.
Posted by: DR ANDREW JOHN KITCHING at May 25, 2007 08:59 AM
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