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May 05, 2008
One hundred and sixty thousand voters needed to defeat the BNP
Here's the story of the BNP's Assembly seat gain and how close (or not) people came to stopping them. All figures below are for the Londonwide Assembly ballot.
Total turnout = 2,454,096
Threshold needed for eligibility of gaining seats = 122,705 (5%)
BNP vote = 130,714 (5.33%)
--> Hence BNP gained 8009 more votes than the threshold.
Now, what would it have taken for the BNP not to have won a seat? How how many additional anti-BNP voters would be needed to cast their ballots (for any other party other than the BNP) for the threshold to have been raised to above the BNP vote?
For 5% exactly: 130714 needs a total turnout of 2614280 - ie. 160,184 extra voters.
So - at minimum - an additional 160,185 non-BNP voters would have been needed to be mobilised and got to the polls to stop the BNP gaining their seat.
To be absolutely certain of that outcome (as I don't know the way London Elects rounds their figures for the threshold), 160,204 anti-BNP voters would have been needed. That number would raise the threshold to 130715 - 1 whole voter more than the BNP's vote.
So there is a two-fold strategy for 2012: (i) try to persuade current BNP voters to support (any) other parties and (ii) get more (anti-BNP) people out to vote. In 2012 everyone needs to really push the persuasive message that every vote can count twice - once for the party a person supports and once against the BNP.
Posted by malcolmclark on May 05, 2008
Comments
If the BNP receive at least 5% of the vote they like any other party are entitled to gain seats accordingly.
You can't have it both ways either you advocate PR and let the minority parties be heard or you suppress true democracy.
I should add that I am no supporter of extremist parties such as the BNP.
Posted by: Barry Srevens at May 5, 2008 09:17 AM
I agree with you Barry that the BNP legitimately and fairly earned their Assembly Member given the numbers and % of people who voted for them. I say so in my previous post:
"If people vote in sufficient numbers for a party, under proportional representation their voice will be heard." And that is a good thing, I should have added.
My intention in this post was to do a bit of a 'what if' number-crunching exercise and also set out a strategy for anti-BNP campaigners to use in 2012. To me that is not having it both ways, but just setting out the challenge ahead the 'Hope not Hate' campaign and others.
Posted by: Malcolm Clark at May 5, 2008 10:50 AM
Would the BNP have been elected under STV do you think?
Posted by: DR ANDREW JOHN KITCHING at May 5, 2008 11:12 AM
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