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May 05, 2008
Why some mayoral votes counted but not others
I feel it worth publicising this point about the downside of the Supplementary Vote system. It was made in an email to me by Colin Buchanan, who writes in a personal capacity but is Hon President of the Electoral Reform Society, so knows a thing or two about elections:
"While it was clearly a two-horse race (which makes it sound simple), and while the second preferences moving on to the two look as though they simply confirmed the gap between them, yet an unseen factor leaves it all highly problematica. By my count, while 260,000 second preferences were registered for the two still in at the run-off, 218,000 second preferences perished as they did not have one of these two named. These, if they had been allowed, say, a third preference with a properly transferable vote, amounted to far more than the final gap between the leading two of 140,000 - and thus might well have had Livingstone ahead of Johnson."
"So what was happening? Those 478,000 Voters had to guess which two would be in the run-off if they wanted their second preference actually to effect the result. But there were two snags - (a) did folk realize their second preferences would otherwise be wasted (Brian Paddick seems to have deliberately wasted his), and (b) suppose a Green supporter, say, thought it just possible the Lib Dem would be one of those fighting it out (and much preferred him to the other two), that very possibility made it imperative to record the second preference for him - and thus lose it. (a) depends upon understanding the mayoral election very differently from the assembly one, and (b) is simply an in-built grave defect in the SV system. A system which disenfranchises those many who cannot or do not guess how others will vote is self-evidently flawed. This election went some way to making some votes count (but not others)."
Posted by malcolmclark on May 05, 2008
Comments
And here is my view of SV (even though it is highly unlikely that anyone is going to take the slightest notice)!
It really is time we recognised the nonsense that is the Supplementary Vote (SV). What we are talking about here is not first and second "preferences", as is generally being alleged, but a first and second VOTE. Not only that, the only second votes that count are those for the first two in the first, FPTP, vote (and even worse of course is the fact that the voter has to GUESS who the first two are).
Moreover, the true position is that in this election neither of the first two candidates achieved a majority on any rational calculation. On the first VOTE Johnson achieved a mere 42% and Livingstone a mere 36%. On the second VOTE Johnson achieved a mere 10% of the vote while Livingstone achieved 12%. It is sleight of hand just to add these two votes together, and then pretend that the "winner" has majority support.
The candidate who achieved the highest second vote was a candidate shut out on the first vote, namely Paddick of the LibDems with 26% - more than twice what either Johnson or Livingstone achieved. Who can say that under the much more rational Alternative Vote (AV) with real first, second and later PREFERENCES, and the voter's consciousness that his SINGLE transferable vote might really count, the LibDem candidate might not have been the overall favourite, with more than the required 50% of the total vote?
The nearest comparable system is the French two round system. Here there are also two votes but on separate occasions. On the first occasion (if they vote at all) the French tend to scatter their votes - especially on the left - in a series of "protest" votes for splinter parties, hoping to come back to the "real" candidate in the second round. But, they could find that he/she is shut out. And so, in 2002, instead of being able to vote for Jospin who was, by a tiny margin, just behind Le Pen, they found themselves faced with a choice between a fascist and a right-winger even though Jospin was probably the overall favourite for President. But at least they could SEE what their choice was, which is more than can be said for SV. And of course there is none of the SV jiggery pokery of adding two VOTES together, since all the second vote is split between just two candidates so one of them is bound to have a majority
I wonder who devised SV and why there is not a clamour to have it replaced in future by AV?
Posted by: Joe Patterson at May 5, 2008 09:36 PM
AV is *not* the system to hope for - it has its own disastrous problems, in particular that you can only afford to vote for your "third party" candidate if you're confident they're not going to get too many votes. Any sane system will meet the "Condorcet critereon", which states that if there is a candidate who would win a pairwise contest with any other candidate, they should be elected the winner. It will also meet a bunch of other criteria, such as monotonicity (moving someone up your preferences cannot hurt them) that AV does not meet.
However, in this instance I don't think I can blame the voting system; everyone knew the runoff was going to be between Ken and Boris, and so I fear that those who did not express a preference between them did so on purpose.
I guess the strongest argument to the contrary you could give would be that if the voting system *forced* you to choose between Ken and Boris then maybe a lot of "as bad as each other" idiots would have grudgingly admitted to the polling form that no, one of them is worse.
Posted by: Paul Crowley at May 6, 2008 06:12 PM
Unfortunately the Condorcet system has it's own fatal flaws. The worst flaw is that a later preference can count against an earlier one. So thare would be good tactical reasons for Ken and Boris's supporters not to give a later preference at all or even to express a false later preference. This reason alone is enough to remove it from serious consideration as a voting system.
Posted by: Keith Underhill at June 6, 2008 03:50 AM
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