Make My Vote Count

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Response to the Italian election

This is an extended / expanded version of a letter  from Make Votes Count that was published in The Times on Saturday 15 April.


Israel and Italy are always used, especially by First-Past-the-Post advocates and lazy journalists, to tarnish the case for electoral reform. Both countries employ systems that are at the furthest extremes of proportional representation and that none of us, even the most ardent reformer, would ever dream of recommending for the UK. Yet that doesn't seem to stop ill-informed comment and PR-bashing.  So if you need a response to tell people about the Italian election, here are a few points to help you:

 

1) Any election where the two main parties/coalitions are only split by a few thousand votes will produce a close overall result and may result in a period of political uncertainty; no matter what the system. 

 

2) Turnout in Italy was 84%: slightly higher than usual; but considerably higher than the 61% at the last UK General Election or indeed any election for decades.  Even the closely fought 1992 election here saw a recent high of only 77%.  So at least the voter engagement part of Italian democracy is flourishing, even under the new electoral system.

3) The previous Italian system, used successfully since 1993, was not straight First-Past-the-Post, as has often been stated in the press. It was a mixed system, with a 25% PR element. Berlusconi brought in the changes last year against much resistance and in an attempt to advantage his coalition.

4) The new Italian system used in these elections is complicated. But the essentials are that the Chamber is closed list PR with candidate lists in large regions and a national-level bonus to get the winning side to 55% of seats, even if they haven’t won that share. The Senate is regional PR, 'reinforced' with a regional-level bonus for the winning side. These bonuses made it important who was ahead on the national total (for the Chamber) and in each region (for the Senate) by introducing a sort of FPTP element into a PR system.  So absolutely not the type of system which would be considered for Westminster elections.

5) In many recent elections across the western world the two main opposing parties / blocs have been fairly evenly split, with few votes separating them. It happened last year in Germany; now in Italy; it was the case in the US in 2000 and almost again in 2004. The recent Canadian election failed to produce a majority administration. Each of these countries uses a different electoral system: some are more proportional than others, some – like our own and Canada’s – aren’t at all. And each of these countries will have a different way of resolving hung parliament or close election situations, based on their particular political circumstances and culture. So any explanation of Italy’s woes that just blames "PR" tends to be far too simplistic and flawed. One only need look at the success and strength of Germany’s Grand Coalition to see how the doomsayers are being proved incorrect there.

6) "Don't gloat. We are not immune to stalemate": said Peter Riddell in The Times last Wednesday. Labour’s 66-seat majority at the last election could have been wiped out completely if a total of 15,000 people in the most marginal seats had voted differently.  Current electoral arithmetic, together with the anti-Conservative bias within the system at the moment, means that a hung parliament will be the most likely situation come the next election.   

7) At least in the the coalitions were agreed in advance and voters knew what there were voting for.  If there is a hung parliament here at the next election, there will be no agreed strategy between the parties beforehand and therefore there may be political horse-trading and possibly a coalition government that no one had voted for – precisely one of things First-Past-the-Post advocates most criticise about any proportional system.

Posted: 17/04/06

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