It's just possible that this will be the last general election ever held under the first-past-the-post voting system. Not that this is an issue likely to feature strongly in the campaign, but below the radar there are powerful pressures for change.
Firstly, it is becoming clear that as the Conservatives and Labour lose their predominance and an increasing share of the vote goes to smaller parties, first-past-the-post is ever more erratic and unpredictable.
The ability of first-past-the-post to elect a government with a real democratic mandate is further undermined by low turnout. In 2001 Labour won two-thirds of the seats in parliament but with voter turnout falling to a record low of 59% its massive parliamentary majority was legitimised by the support of just one in four of the electorate.
Polls predict a further decline in turnout at this election with Labour supporters particularly likely to stay at home. But the voting system is currently displaying such a bias that even if the Labour slips several points behind the Conservatives on this occasion, another Labour landslide, a reduced majority or a hung parliament are all more likely outcomes than a Conservative victory.
Any such perverse outcome would rightly cause uproar and fuel the demand for reform.
Secondly, and most unusually, following this particular general election all parties are likely to be more open to considerations of voting reform. Smaller parties will be angry at a system that completely denies them representation at Westminster, even though they command significant support and have won representation under more proportional voting systems at other levels of government.
Even if the Liberal Democrats increase their seats by targeting resources at marginals, they will still be seriously underrepresented and will insist on voting reform as the price of any post-election cooperation.
After a third defeat, the Conservatives would be more willing to consider the possibility that voting reform might be necessary to save them from complete oblivion, especially, if they win the largest number of votes and lose seats because of UKIP, or others, splitting the centre-right vote.
Whatever the result in terms of seats, Labour will begin to sense its own political mortality. A grossly inflated victory, or any further serious collapse in turnout would serve to stoke up resentment against the arrogance of seemingly unchallengeable power. Whilst a much reduced majority or hung parliament would leave Labour reliant on Liberal Democrat cooperation for its immediate survival. And Labour strategists would-be all too well aware that the exaggerating effects inherent in the first-past-the-post would be likely to turn against them by the following election.
Thirdly, a process is in place through which voting reform can be achieved.
In 1997 Labour's manifesto stated:
| We are committed to a referendum on the voting system for the House of Commons. An independent commission on voting systems will appointed early to recommend a proportional alternative to the first-past-the-post system. |
The Labour government set up the promised commission, chaired by Lord Jenkins, this reported in 1998. The Jenkins report proposed a new Alternative Vote Plus system, that sort to balance the criteria of stable government, constituency link, voter choice and broad proportionality. The fact that this system required a wholesale boundary review was used was used as an excuse for the delay in holding the promised referendum. The real reason being Labour's massive majority, and the reluctance of most MPs to reform a system from which they benefited.
Old-style Labour tribalists who are the strongest opponents of reform in the Labour Party and the trade unions sought to use the delay as an excuse for killing off Labour's commitment to reform altogether. Voting reformers recognised the historic importance of Labour's commitment to a referendum and sought to keep the Jenkins process alive, whilst recognising that nothing was likely to happen as long as Labour enjoyed such a massive parliamentary majority. To achieve a progressive consensus within Labour reformers sought to bring together those who genuinely believe in voting reform as a democratic principle, with those who recognise that Labour might one day need something to offer disillusioned Liberal Democrat minded tactical voters. A compromise was reached in the wording of the 2001 Labour Party manifesto which read:
| The government has introduced major innovations in the electoral systems used in the UK for the devolved administrations, the European Parliament, and the London Assembly. The Independent Commission on the Voting System made proposals for electoral reform at Westminster. We will review the experience of the new systems and the Jenkins report to assess whether changes might be made to the electoral system for the House of Commons. A referendum remains the right way to agree any change for Westminster. |
The wording of Labour's 2005 manifesto is likely to take this forward, establishing the review and keeping the possibility of reform open. If the election does produce a much closer result, this review will become central to any possibility of Liberal Democrat cooperation with Labour. In such a scenario there is every prospect that the review will come up with a reform to the voting system something along the lines of the Jenkins proposals and that this will be put to the people in a referendum in time to be implemented (fully or in stages), by the following general election.
making it happen
Make Votes Count is the cross party umbrella campaign working to make this happen. We believe the 2005 general election does represent a historic opportunity for reform. The election result itself is likely to expose the failings of the current winner takes all voting system. All parties are likely to have reason after the election to be more open-minded about reform. And a process is in place that could lead to a referendum.
The onus lies on us supporters of voting reform to work hard over the next few weeks to get the idea across that voting reform is a major part of the answer to the problem of restoring trust in politics. This web site has been developed as a campaigning tool to that end.
You can help create a climate for change. Get your friends and family to sign the "make my vote count" petition. Use the site to order and download campaign materials, make donations and get in touch with other campaigners. Feedback your experience, media coverage and ideas into the campaign diary. Create links to the site and use the jokes, quizzes etc to send out e-mails promoting the site to everyone in your e-mail address book.
With your help we can build up huge support for voting reform online and then take the complacent political classes by surprise. People have died to win us the right to vote, now a little bit of effort by you (and thousands like you) can win the change required to make votes count.